Forecasting The Amelia Auctions

With the big January auctions in the rearview mirror and Paris’ Rétromobile sales just gone out the left window, it’s time to look ahead to the Amelia auctions on the horizon. Taking stock, we’ve noticed that some themes from last year remain, new ones have emerged, and broader market trends continue to inform the sales.

Unbenannt 13
Broad Arrow

2024’s Amelia auctions find Bonhams, Broad Arrow, and Gooding & Company returning, but RM Sotheby’s has left for a new event in Miami. Broad Arrow now has a two-day auction starting on Friday, while Gooding will also have a two-day event beginning on Thursday. Bonhams continues with its Thursday-only sale.

Despite the additional day at Broad Arrow, fewer vehicles will be offered at the Amelia auctions this year. The three auction companies have other, more focused events on the calendar later this year for which they may be retaining some cars.

Total sales will likely come down to around $134.7 million from the record $177.7 million set in 2023. Why? There isn’t anything like 2023’s $18 million 1962 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider offered this year. Additionally, there will be fewer million-dollar vehicles this year (from 55 to 42). We’ve noted of late that more seven- and eight-figure cars are being offered via private auctions, private sale, and at events like Rétromobile.

Screenshot 2024 02 20 at 09 48 20 Forecasting the 2024 Amelia Auctions Hagerty Media

One marque that often gets the spotlight at the Amelia auctions is Porsche. With the Porsche Club of America’s Werks Reunion typically on Friday at Amelia, the auctions have a favorable audience in the area. However, this year, we only expect 53 examples of the Stuttgart marque, down from 62 last year and 63 in 2020. Though numbers might be slightly down, the variety continues. Two first-year 928s are on offer, but the weekend’s big sellers could also come from either the 1959 Porsche 718 RSK “Lucybelle III” (est. $3.5 million to $4.5 million) offered by Broad Arrow or the 1961 Porsche RS61 (est. $4 million to $5 million) offered by Gooding.

1959 porsche 718 rsk spyder lucybelle iii
Broad Arrow

Another segment from which we will likely see further big sales is the late 1980s and early ’90s AMG cars. Notably, all five offered are from the 124-series (E-Class), with three sedans, one coupe, and one wagon. We’re unlikely to see any prices near the $885,000 paid for a widebody coupe last year, as the consignment with the highest estimate is an E60 sedan estimated at $250,000 to $300,000 by Broad Arrow. However, this year’s five consignments show how the market for early AMGs continues to mature.

2022 bugatti chiron pur sport
Broad Arrow

Hypercars were popular at the January auctions—two of the top three sales in Arizona last month were Bugatti Chirons, with a 2022 Super Sport in the top place at $5,175,000 and a 2018 model at $2,970,000. That party may continue in Amelia, as the top consignment at Broad Arrow is a 2022 Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport, estimated at $4 million to $5 million. A 2021 Lamborghini Sián closely follows it at $3,000,0000 to $3,750,000. Gooding’s top consignment was a hypercar of its time, even if the term hadn’t yet been invented: it’s a 1903 Mercedes-Simplex 60 HP, estimated to be more than $10 million. We will watch this closely to see which era’s hypercar resonates most with bidders in 2024.

1954 Ferrari 500 Mondial SI Spider Gooding
Copyright and Courtesy of Gooding & Company, Images by Mathieu Heurtault.

One sale at Amelia may help update the market for Ferraris with competition history. Gooding has a 1954 Ferrari 500 Mondial with an estimate of $4 million to $5 million, but that’s the only Ferrari at the auctions that is Mille Miglia–eligible. The lone consignment underlines that there’s a strong showing of similar cars currently available publicly at dealers. The results of this sale may change that trend.

1936 Avions Voisin Type C28 CB Mullin Museum
Mullin Museum

Finally, Gooding will auction some of the vehicles from the late Peter Mullin’s museum. One ideal pick for a concours weekend is the 1935 Avions Voisin Type C28 Clairiere Berline, estimated at $350,000 to $450,000. Its design is less avant-garde than the collection’s other 1935 Avions Voisin, which won Best in Show at Amelia last year, but it should still get a lot of interest from concours-goers. The sale will also highlight how vehicles from an exceptional but focused collection find new homes.

Stay tuned for our auction coverage of Amelia as we provide updates and observations on the results as they happen.

Report by John Wiley

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