With a scant few days left in 2023, we’ve polished up our crystal ball and begun to look ahead to what might happen in the market in the coming year. As has become tradition around this time, we take a look at our past predictions and gather those that our analysts have for the coming year based on the trends they’ve observed. Here are our predictions for 2024.
The number of $10m+ cars offered at auction will continue to rise
Even in a slower market, a lot of high-dollar cars are transacting, and that trend is likely to continue. Seven $10m+ vehicles were offered at auction in 2023 in North America, which is similar to 2014 and 2017 when seven and eight were offered, respectively. Only 2015–2016 saw more, with 23 offered over the two years. Auctions for 2024 are still being announced, but three $10m+ vehicles are already set to cross the block. As a result, we expect this coming year’s count to exceed 2023’s and perhaps reach an even ten. —John Wiley, manager of valuation analytics
A McLaren will sell for more than $25 million
The last time a McLaren F1 road car was sold at public sale was 2021. Sporting fewer than 400 kilometers on its odometer, that standard-spec F1 topped $20 million. Especially since that sale, the F1 is frequently mentioned in discussions as the “next Ferrari 250 GTO,” and another public sale would test that hypothesis. Pulling that thread further, there are more valuable F1s out there than the one that sold in 2021—LM-spec F1s are worth nearly double in the Hagerty Price Guide. Or, though it might be a long shot given the company’s propensity for holding onto its F1 cars, perhaps a single-seat McLaren F1 race car will be the one to cross $25M? —Richard Salmons, valuation information analyst
The 1963–1967 Chevrolet Corvette will retake its crown as the top seller from the 2013–2019 Porsche 911
Corvette and Porsche have long battled it out in sports car racing. They also take their fight across the auction block, with the second-gen Corvette and the more recent 991-generation 911 vying for the model with the top overall sales spot. In 2023, 991 911s raked in over $80.6 million at auction compared to $69.4 million for the C2 Corvette. The year prior, the C2 Corvette boasted $75.2 million in total sales with an average price of $94,620, while the 991 Porsche had total sales of $71.9 million and an average price of $120,341. 2024 brings a couple of things in the Corvette’s favor: while we expect online auctions to continue to grow (where most 911s of this generation are sold), the Porsche will begin to depreciate as its replacement 992 becomes more popular. Furthermore, the Corvette is gaining value in the Hagerty Price Guide, with the average Condition 2 value up 0.8% in 2023.—John Wiley
With only a couple of exceptions, the Hagerty Market Rating has tracked a slow, steady retreat from its peak in the summer of 2022. December’s rating continued that path. The rating will likely drop below 55 in 2024, solidly into flat market territory. That would be the lowest it has been since 2011. –Adam Wilcox, senior information analyst
Distinctions in the auction world continue to blur, but for live and online auctions conducted in North America, 2022 and 2023 each achieved total sales just above $3.4 billion. Even in a much less heated market, expect that total to be beaten in 2024: live and online auction growth will likely overcome lower prices and a lower sell-through rate. A couple more $10 million+ vehicles would help, too.—John Wiley
A Subaru/Mitsubishi of the 2000s will sell for more than $100,000
As the 1990s JDM stars move deeper into six-figure territory, look for rally-inspired special editions from Mitsubishi/Subaru to exceed $100,000.—Richard Salmons
GT endurance cars from the 1990s and 2000s will sell for record amounts
Expect GT2/GTLM/GTS cars from Ferrari, Chevrolet, Dodge, Aston Martin, and others to sell for record prices in 2024 as they become more popular and their provenance gets sorted. Racing versions of cars like the Chevrolet Corvette C5 and C6 (no public sales), Dodge Viper ($700,000), Ferrari 550 ($4.3 million), and Aston Martin DB9 ($2.4 million) that featured in big battles at tracks like Le Mans in the late 1990s and early 2000s are now within the 20-to-30 year window where their values transition from “used race car” to “historical significance.” Also, the best examples of the higher category GT1 cars are now around $10 million, so the GT2/GTLM/GTS cars are likely to follow along behind.—John Wiley
An EV conversion will sell for $200K+
Barrett-Jackson sold a converted 1963 Cadillac Eldorado for $154,000 last January, and they have a 1966 Pontiac GTO EV conversion consigned for their January 2024 auction. We anticipate one of these conversions to break the $200K level, and soon. If not the GTO, it could be a converted Jaguar or Aston Martin sold in the U.K.—John Wiley
A kid’s car will sell for more than $100K
Not a kei car, but a children’s car. We have seen them sell for that much in the past, just not recently. Children’s cars are becoming a popular auction opener—at Monterey in August, RM Sotheby’s sold a scaled-down Ferrari F40 for $87,000. It’s just a matter of time before one cracks six figures once more. –Adam Wilcox
What are your predictions for the enthusiast vehicle market in 2024? Tell us what you see in your crystal ball in the comments.
Report by John Wiley for hagerty.com
