With Monterey Car Week fast approaching, many enthusiasts will be watching the auctions closely to see if the market can escape its post-pandemic doldrums. There are some signs of activity in the market, and the five auction companies conducting sales at Monterey have all announced big cars. The forecast suggests total sales on the peninsula could range from a post-pandemic average of $430 million all the way up to a record year with $488 million.
The market is not usually gauged by focusing on one model, but Lamborghinis are hard to ignore, especially in Monterey. Lamborghini’s seminal supercar has remained popular even when the market has been otherwise quiet. Miuras, for instance, have seen a nearly 28 percent increase in value over the past year, and four of the five auction companies are offering at least one example. These range from cars with useful upgrades to those with living-room-find originality. While offering five Miuras may risk oversaturating the market, it also provides enthusiasts with a beneficial selection.
Looking at the broader picture, the lot count is close to the average for the past several years, with nearly 1,200 vehicles offered. Across all the auctions, it is predicted that around 78 percent of these will sell, which is slightly better than the past couple of years. The number of lots likely to sell for $1 million or more—156—could set a record by six vehicles. However, due to some auction companies not publishing estimates, there is some uncertainty.
In addition to the original Lamborghini supercar, there is a significant presence of modern supercars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. This segment of the market continues to appreciate in value. For instance, while Porsche Carrera GTs have dipped slightly from their peak of $2 million for a condition #1 (“best-in-the-world”) car in 2022, values are beginning to rise again, with the condition #1 value now at $1.85 million. Four examples will be offered in Monterey. The Carrera GT’s predecessor, the 959, has experienced more consistent appreciation over the past three years, with the condition #1 value up 68 percent since 2021 to $2.6 million. Three will be auctioned in Monterey.
It isn’t in the supercars index, but an honorable mention goes to the 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 offered by Broad Arrow with an estimate of $8.5 million to $10.5 million. Of the five modern Ferrari supercars of the set, no 288 GTOs are available, but two F40s, one F50, two Enzos, and one LaFerrari will cross the block. In keeping with Pebble Beach’s preference for prewar cars, only four of the 14 Bugattis offered will be from the modern mid-engine era, but there will be an EB110, one Veyron, and two Chirons. We expect this segment will continue to be popular at the auctions this year, as it has in the past several.
Even with the recent surge in modern supercars, though, the prewar segment is a favorite for the Monterey auctions, as it is for the Pebble Beach Concours. Despite 1930s vehicles representing less than 7 percent of the lots, their share of the total sales will likely be above average and in the 11 to 15 percent range. We also expect the very best 1930s consignments will dominate the top 10 for the week. Gooding & Co. has a recent theft recovery in the form of a 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider by Touring, with an estimate of $16 million to $20 million. Broad Arrow has a 1938 Talbot-Lago T150 C Teardrop by Figoni et Falaschi at $6.5 million to $8.5 million, and Mecum has a 1936 Delahaye Type 135 Competition Court Teardrop Coupe. The other 11 Bugattis offered are prewar cars and range from a 1914 Bugatti Type 23 Tourer to a 1937 Bugatti Type 57SC Atalante, the latter of which has an estimate of $9 million to $11 million. Both are at Gooding.
The other cars set to dominate the top 10 are the Enzo Era (1947-73) Ferrraris, and specifically the 1950s sports racing and 1960s GT cars offered at the auctions this year. Such cars typically represent a quarter of the total sales in dollars in Monterey despite being only about five percent of the vehicles sold. This year we expect about 23 percent of total sales to come from this segment. If you’re looking for style, there are two Ferrari 250 GT/L Lussos, with one at Broad Arrow and another at Bonhams. If you’re seeking the ultimate California experience, there are three Ferrari 250 GT California Spiders—both a LWB and a SWB at RM Sotheby’s and one SWB at Gooding. Estimates start at $5 million for the LWB and jumps to $15 million for the SWB at Gooding.
Those looking for a car with competition history can check out the ex-Carroll Shelby raced 1955 Ferrari 857 Sport Spider with an estimate of $6 million to $8 million at Gooding or another ex-Carroll Shelby raced 1956 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider with an estimate of at least $15 million at RM Sotheby’s.
Rounding out the segments being monitored, approximately 11 percent of the vehicles offered are Porsches, which is about average for Monterey. However, total sales from Porsches are expected to account for 14 percent, thanks to high-value models like the 911 GT1. While American cars are discussed in detail elsewhere, notable mentions include seven original Cobras, one Ford GT40, a Tucker, four Duesenbergs, and a 1913 Mercer Raceabout. In contrast, only two Japanese Domestic Market (JDM) vehicles stand out—a 1993 Honda NSX Type-R and a 1999 Nissan Skyline GT-R V-spec—both of which are at Broad Arrow. If these JDM models sell better than expected, it would contrast with the mixed results this segment has seen at Monterey in recent years.
Lastly, a new data source being utilized is the number of private aircraft landing in Monterey during car week. Although not experts in aviation, it has been observed that the volume of private aircraft arriving in Monterey correlates with total sales at the auctions. The hypothesis is that more flights indicate the presence of more major collectors, either to buy or sell.
Observations and analysis of the auction results will be posted in the live blog, so stay tuned.
