The Monterey auctions are right around the corner! While there are some changes to the week’s events, with Broad Arrow now in Carmel Valley hosting their sale in conjunction with the Quail and Bonhams moving to Laguna Seca, the big difference is that the market for the most expensive cars has gotten a lot stronger since last year. Auction companies and consignors have noticed, and this year could be a record for total sales.
Let’s see why. The following five charts show the auctions next week, and what some of the predictions are.
1. Hagerty could see $500M in total sales
The midpoint of the overall forecast for the 2026 Monterey auctions is $470M, which is just behind the prior record from 2022. However, the optimistic end of the forecast is $496M. If bidding is strong, it could even exceed half a billion dollars for the first time ever. Although the number of vehicles on offer is expected to stay similar and the ratio of reserve lots is expected to increase slightly to just over half, the mix of more valuables vehicles could push over the $500M threshold.
2. More supercars
Previously, they’ve noted that the biggest stories coming out of the Monterey auctions were traditionally in vintage Ferraris. While there are some excellent examples of those this year, the segment loses ground in terms of share of total sales to the other big segments. More modern vehicles continue to gain share, and of the big three market segments in Monterey—Enzo-era (1947–74) Ferraris, prewar greats (late 1920s to the early ’40s), and modern supercars (1984–present)—the modern supercars will likely take 60% of the sales this year. That said, they expect prewar greats to gain share as well, and the big, eight-figure 1960s American consignments such as the 1964 Shelby Cobra Daytona coupe and 1963 Chevrolet Corvette Grand Sport don’t fit into any of the three segments mentioned above.
3. More million-dollar lots
When counting lots by low estimate or final bid that would lead to a sale of $1M+ after fees, they expect a record number of seven-figure cars. There will likely be 177, which is up from the prior record of 158 in 2022. Many of these are modern supercars, but there are also a lot of prewar cars on offer this year, so collectors will have a range of options.
4. The average model year is newer
The vehicles at the Monterey auctions have trended newer in the past couple of years. While the average model year of vehicles on offer was 1967 just three years ago, it is now 1974. The average model year of vehicles that sold has followed the same trend, but is often slightly newer than the average model year of vehicles offered.
5. The average and median price will diverge further
As with the rest of the market, the average price will likely diverge further from the median in Monterey. When that happens, it reflects strength at the top of the market for the most valuable cars, while prices for more numerous and more affordable mainstream enthusiast vehicles trend sideways. However, the gap probably won’t be as wide as 2022, because so many modern supercars are breaking into the seven figures this year.
Stay tuned for the coverage of the auctions here as they post live updates throughout the week. And if you’ll be at the auctions in Monterey, find them and say hello.
Report by John Wiley for hagerty.com
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